Dropping fertility rates raise alarm

The issue was brought to the forefront
following comments by the Secretary of the HCM City Party Committee this week
encouraging more births in the country’s largest metropolis.

Pham Thi My Le, deputy head of the HCM City
Department of Population and Family Planning, said total fertility, or the
number of births per woman, was 1.45 in 2015 – significantly lower than the
national replacement fertility rate of 2.1 for the country. Similar rates have
been observed throughout the southeastern region as well as 13 provinces of the
region, with fertility rates hovering at around 1.8 and 1.9,
respectively – two regions with the lowest fertility rates in the country.

For a small country that occupies 14th
place in the global ranking in terms population and has already posted a stable
annual population increase of over 1 percent in the last decade, clamouring for
more childbirths seem counter-intuitive.

However, experts are concerned because the
low fertility in the south is occurring even though this region is more
developed and people can afford the costs of child-rearing. On the other hand,
the Red River Delta region (barring the capital city of Hanoi) does not enjoy
the same level of development as HCM City, the southeastern region and Mekong
Delta region, but posted a fertility rate of 2.3 and the trend is looking up.
The same thing is true of mountainous areas in the north or Central Highlands,
with their remote locations and high concentration of ethnic minorities,
suffering economic hardship.

Low fertility rates in more developed
areas, such as HCM City, the biggest economic hub of Vietnam, are attributed to
high living costs as well as high demands of the population regarding education
and other child-rearing aspects. In addition, the number of women waiting
longer to get married and bear children due to job pressures, or those who
decide not to bear children, are also on the rise as modernisation and
urbanisation expands.

Two children each

This situation has made authorities in some
localities change their motto to “every couple should have two children,” from
the previous “a couple should bear one or two children for better rearing.”

Two children in one family will help
prevent the undesired “4-2-1 pyramid structure”, where a sole child is expected
to care for four grandparents (both on his/her mother’s and his/her father’s
side) in addition to his/her parents, said Nguyen Viet Tien, Deputy Minister of
Health.

Secretary Nguyen Thien Nhan told the media
after a HCM City People’s Council meeting that Government efforts to maintain
replacement fertility in the last decade are important for the “golden
population” period – where for every two people of working age, there is
one dependent person, and is considered by the United Nations as the
once-in-a-country’s lifetime “golden opportunity” for socio-economic
development.

Nhan said HCM City already has a balanced
gender ratio of childbirths, but the city’s declining fertility rate might
spell a negative future for the country if the fertility rate fails to counter
the ageing process. An ageing population would leave the country short of
labour, adversely impacting the economy and a progressively onerous burden on
the country’s social security system.

However, it should be said that family
planning will not be forgone in favour of increasing fertility rates, at least
for the time being, since the government has not yet officially allowed HCM
City to conduct “birth promotion” measures. In the meantime, local media will
be tasked with “calling for the city’s citizens to be dutiful to the two-child
policy.”

The national policy should be “malleable”
to adapt to each locality’s situation, said health deputy minister Tien.

Childbirth is not just a familial private
matter but also a “national concern that decides the existence of a country,”
as Secretary Nhan once said.-VNA